Is Bull Run Over for Indian Market??? is our portfolio going to survive the next phase of correction

Hi I am prashant sisodiya and I welcome you all. Stock markets are highly volatile now a days especially emerging markets like india which takes cues from global markets like US.

Now a days markets are reacting on news rather than data. so what do you think will happen in next 3months or 6months or let's say 1 year.

As we have quoted earlier

Year 2022-23 will be highly volatile and major risk will be: rise of commodity

prices which lead to increase of input cost and most of the companies will face

margin pressures that will be reflected in next few quarterly earnings. Other

risk is rise of inflation and accordingly interest rate will be increased. Us 5y

bond yield rate is higher than US 10y bond yield which is also creating situation

of stagflation and upcoming economic recession.

We are still intact with the above comment as the pace of inflation we are witnessing is very rapid and counter measure taken by govt is not sufficient to slow the pace. As we believe it's time for the government to take strong actions like multiple hikes in interest rates (which will again create pressure on rate sensitive sectors like bank and auto), Controlling the domestic price of various commodities etc.

What should we do as investors? Should we completely exit or we should play some sectoral rotations?

As we are continuously witnessing selling pressure in markets led by FIIs. so what could be next sectors which can see fresh selling?

As FIIs are cashing out the dollars in exchange of INR so banks are going to be in pressure maybe banking sector will lead the correction this time especially the banks like SBI and ICICI.

USD/ INR is standing above 77.5 which is the same levels when nifty was testing 15800 which only indicates rupee is more weaker and markets are not digesting this sooner or later market will correct and this may be one of the reasons for the same.

In the last months correction ,we have seen Auto as a sector stood strong lead by volume growth and good set of numbers but if we look out the stock specific approach then stocks like M&M is trading at all time high even though nifty is correcting. so this stock is in overbought zone on higher time frames one correction is triggered in this stock it will underperform the nifty like earlier same thing happened with Maruti.

What we believe investors should be cautious before making fresh positions and traders should use this opportunity to trade with hedging only.

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email: Caprashantsisodiya@gmail.com

disclaimer: we are not sebi registered research analyst and this is our personal opinion for educational purpose only.