Diwali 2022: An Brief Analysis of market for 1 year

Hello Everyone

Happy Diwali to all of you

Markets all over the world are highly volatile, maybe there is something big coming up in the next 3-6 months. Indian markets are positioned strongly among other emerging players but at the same time USD INR touched 83which raises concern in the medium term.

If we talk about some global cues; Matter between Russia and Ukraine is not resolved yet. It may give a negative vibe to the market in the near future.

Another concern is Unstable UK geopolitics, as their Finance minister is frequently changing and now their PM has also resigned which raises concern globally and companies whose business are located in Europe may face supply chain disruption in near future.

Another concern is FED’s money printing. Since2020, Fed printed $4.5 trillion in just 2 years and for the first time in history money was handed over directly to business and consumers without doing any work. From $800 billion to $8.8 trillion money supply, out of which 90% was printed in the last 14 years and 55% of the whole money supply as on today is printed in the last 2 years.

All the above reasons have a longer term impact on the economy, we cannot misinterpret them with one quarter good earnings, this may be the “bullwhip” effect, but based on data there may be a “Black Swan” event in next 6 months.

Where to Invest :

Strategy Name: Bear Market hedge portfolio:

1. Buy “Nifty” March 2023, 18000 PE at 825-930 range, SL at 400 with the target price of 1650, 2450, 3200.

2. Buy “Bank nifty” March 2023, 39000 PE at 1100-1300 range, SL at 570 with the target price of 2300, 3100, 4200.

3. Sell “ICICI Bank” Futures Dec 2022 at 910-925 range, hedged with ICICI bank, Nov 2022, 930 CE at 21 -27 range.

4. Sell “M&M” Futures Dec 2022 at 1250-1275 range, hedged with M&M, Nov 2022, 1300 CE at 25-28 range.

5. ddSell “Titan” Futures Dec 2022 at 2675-2700 range, hedged with Titan, Nov 2022, 2740 CE at 50-60 range.

Strategy Name: Equity Cash Long Only:

1. Buy “HPL Electric Power” at 80-87 range, for the target of 174, 220.

2. Buy “Wipro” at 375-385 range, for the target of 500, 540.

3. Buy “RCF” at 95-100 range, for the target of 135, 165.

4. Buy “ ION Exchange” at 1950-2020 range, for the target of 2440, 2890.

5. Buy “Rattan india Enterprise ltd” at 44-52 range, for the target of 72, 84

Diwali market view

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